Concrete Majority
Michael Wagstaff • 14 September 2023
How vulnerable are MPs in RAAC seats?
At the end of August, the government released a list of 147 schools in England where crumbling concrete posed a risk to the buildings. These schools were built using reinforced autoclave aerated concrete (RAAC) and those listed were in the most immediate need of repair.
What impact might the location of these schools have on an election, probably next year?
Of the 147 affected schools, three-quarters are currently held by the Conservatives. Many of these seats have large majorities but three are marginals, where the winner's share of the vote is less than 10% of that of the second placed candidate. These includes Ehser and Walton, currently held by Dominic Raab.
A further 10 seats have a majority of less than 10,000 votes and could also be considered vulnerable.
Of course, just because there is a RAAC school in the area doesn't necessarily mean that the constituents will vote against the sitting MP - and it's worth remembering that the problem predates the current government. It does, however, act to focus the minds of voters on the state of public services in their local area.
And with Labour continuing to be well ahead in the polls, some of those big majority Tory seats could come into play.
Hover over the interactive map to highlight details of the constituency and the MPs majority.
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