Who'll Win the Premier League?

Michael Wagstaff • 30 March 2024

Liverpool predicted to win but it's very close

With the Premier League heading towards the final few games, we have run a predictive model to see who will win the title, which teams will qualify for Champions League football and which will be relegated.


Our predicted final Premier League standings is based upon probabilities. To generate the probabilities we use results from this season and previous ones to model the number of goals scored in a match as a Poisson distribution (the probability for a team to score one goal, two goals, three goals and so on in a match). We then identify parameters to represent a team’s attacking strength, defensive strength and home advantage. Applying this model to the remaining Premier League fixtures we can predict the final standings probabilities.


Premier League Final Table Probabilities

Our model predicts that Liverpool will win the title from Manchester City with Arsenal third. But it's incredibly tight with Liverpool's winning probability only two percentage points ahead of Manchester City. Spurs are predicted to secure a Champions League place.


At the bottom, Sheffield United and Burnley are highly likely to be relegated along with Luton although Forest are in the mix too. Everton look to be safe, despite their points deduction.

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