Who'll Win the Premier League 2025?

Michael Wagstaff • 6 February 2025

Liverpool has 89% probability of winning the Premier League

With the January transfer window now shut, we have run a predictive model to see who will win the Premier League title, which teams will qualify for Champions League football and which will be relegated.


Our model predicts that Liverpool will win the title from Arsenal.  Liverpool are clear favourites with an 89% probability of winning. There is an 80% probability that Arsenal will finish second.


In relation to qualifying for the Champions League, Nottingham Forest has a 61% chance of finishing in the top four with Manchester City on 60%. If the current Premier League holders continue with their stuttering form then Chelsea (39% to finish in top four) and Newcastle (22%) could take their place.


At the bottom, Southampton are certain to be relegated and there is a very high probability that Ipswich and Leicester will join them. Wolves, with a 21% chance of finishing in the bottom three, are not out of the woods yet. 


Premier League Final Table - Percentage Probability of Finishing In Each Position


Our predicted final Premier League standings is based upon probabilities. To generate the probabilities we use results from this season and previous ones to model the number of goals scored in a match as a Poisson distribution (the probability for a team to score one goal, two goals, three goals and so on in a match). We then identify parameters to represent a team’s attacking strength, defensive strength and home advantage. Applying this model to the remaining Premier League fixtures we can predict the final standings probabilities.

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