Qatar World Cup

Will Wagstaff • 20 November 2022

We put Data Science up front to play the percentages for the FIFA World Cup 2022. 


Who will win the World Cup? Will Mbappé inspire the French to retain the crown they won in 2018? Will Messi finally lead Argentina to glory or will Brazil's firepower up front sweep them to victory? How will England and Wales do?

To find out the answers to these questions you can spend hours poring over the form book, analysing previous results, goals scored and goals conceded. But you don't need to do that because we've done it for you. We've done the data science taking all these factors into account and predicting the result for every group match. From this we have worked out probabilities for who is likely to progress from the group stage into the knockouts by virtue of finishing first or second in each of the eight groups.

Probabilities for making it through the group stage

For each team we show the percentage probability of progressing to the knockout stage once our model has predicted the outcome of every match played.


Netherlands is the strong favourite to progress from Group A but it looks close between Senegal and Ecuador as to who will join them. We don't rate host Qatar's chances of making the round of 16.


We expect Argentina, England, France, Spain, Belgium, Brazil and Portugal to progress to the quarter finals alongside Netherlands. Germany, Croatia, Denmark and Uruguay have a high chance of going through in their groups but groups A,B, C and G look tight in relation to the second team going through to the knockouts.


The model is predicting England to go through from Group B with Wales and USA battling it out to be the second team to go through. At the moment the model predicts that the USA will just pip Wales.




Who's going all the way?

As things stand, before a game has been played, our model suggests that one of Brazil, Argentina, France and Spain will win the World Cup. Brazil is favourite with a 16% chance. England is on 9%.


The model predicts that England has a 57% chance of reaching the quarter finals but only a 31% chance of getting to the semis. It also calculates that Wales has a 14% chance of reaching the quarter finals.


If Costa Rica was to win the World Cup it was represent the shock of all shocks as the model predicts that there is virtually no chance of that happening.




After each round of matches we will feed the results into the model to update it and amend the probabilities. Check back in or follow us on Twitter for the very latest FIFA World Cup predictions.

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